Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is down today, with losses coinciding with a growing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and profit-taking ahead of key economic data in the United States.
Bitcoin drops as Israel bombs Beirut
On Sept. 30, BTC’s price dropped by 2.90%—its worst single-day drop in three weeks—to around $63,735. The drop coincided with Israel’s bombing of central Beirut, marking the first airstrike in nearly a year amid escalating hostilities with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
This isn’t the first time Bitcoin has reacted negatively to Middle East unrest this year. In April 2024, BTC experienced an over 10% decline following Israel’s attack on Iran, suggesting a recurring pattern of sentiment-driven sell-offs during regional conflicts.
Bitcoin is often touted as a hedge against economic instability. But this year’s geopolitical developments have shown that traders tend to exit risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, in favor of safer alternatives during heightened uncertainty.
De-risking ahead of key US economic data
Today’s Bitcoin decline aligns with similar downside moves in US stock futures, indicating a lower appetite for riskier assets among traders and investors.
S&P 500 futures four-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The cautious sentiment appears primarily as traders await several key economic updates in the US this week, namely the jobs data and the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance on interest rates.
According to Reuters data on Friday, nonfarm payrolls for September will likely show an increase of 140,000 jobs.
The labor report could be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision at its Nov. 6-7 meeting. Traders are waiting for the Powell speech on Sept. 30 for further hints.
When market participants expect possible shifts in monetary policy, especially around interest rates, they tend to avoid riskier assets like Bitcoin and equities, opting instead for safer investments.
Nonetheless, futures tied to the federal funds rate indicate that market sentiment favors a 25-basis-point rate cut instead of a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction. Lower interest rates have historically been bullish for Bitcoin.
Target rate probabilities for the November Fed meeting. Source: CME
Bitcoin’s prevailing technical setup hints at short-term correction
Today’s Bitcoin declines are part of a correction that started three days after the cryptocurrency reached the resistance trendline of its prevailing descending channel pattern.
Related: US election outcome won’t slow Q4 Bitcoin rally, hedge fund says
As of Sept. 30, BTC’s price was down by over 5% when measured from the resistance trendline. It may decline toward the next support targets near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level—at around $65,565—and the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near the $63,000 mark.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Further selloffs can move the BTC price toward the channel’s support trendline—coinciding with the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level below $52,850—by October.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.